Digital Cowboy

I did a post a few weeks back that I titled “I hate Pink Kitty.” Of course, I don’t. But I’ve heard that Elena was very critical when she thought I threatened to make this blog “all poker, all the time.”

So, with her in mind, I give you further analysis of the 2005 WSOP.

Johnny Chan got his 10th bracelet this year and put himself ahead of both Phil Hellmuth and Doyle Brunson. The three of them had been tied at 9 for a number of years. Why men would compete for bracelets is beyond me, but that’s an aside.

I’m watching Doyle go for his 10th right now. I could have easily known the outcome a long time ago, but I’ve gone to great lengths not to.

Makes no difference. It doesn’t matter how many bracelets Johnny or Phil or anyone else gets, Doyle will always be the Godfather of poker.

That shows at the table. He gets respect because he’s earned it. He’s been playing poker longer than most of his opponents have been alive.

And winning.

UPDATE: He got the tenth. Though it is a bit sad to see a man of his stature whoring a website on the front of his hat. A cowboy’s hat should be sacred. It’s certainly no place for advertising, but I’m also certainly in no place to criticize Doyle.

… and it’s all so depressing.

I don’t mean that it’s depressing that she was right. I would expect she usually is. She’s very smart and smart people tend to be right a lot.

But I heard through the gossip tree (closely related to the grapevine) that she was complaining about my blog becoming “all poker all the time” right after I did the Just a warning post a few weeks ago. (That’s not even what I said. But I understand that after it had passed through a hundred people or so, by the time the little bird told me, it was probably slightly distorted. It wouldn’t be the first time that stupid bird mislead me.)

Anyway. Seems she was right. I did a little scrolling on my own blog page a few minutes ago and noticed that everyone here is, at best, completely disinterested in poker. The header on every page here says, “Poker is life, life is poker.” right under my big, fancy name! Yet when I discuss poker my comments are a big fat zero.

I love y’all that read and comment around here. But don’t any of ya care about poker at all?!?!

Many people seem to think that poker is gambling. It is most definitely not. It is a game of skill comprised of math and psychology. Roulette is gambling, craps is gambling, even blackjack is to a degree.

“But, part of it is just luck!” say the detractors. That I won’t deny. Just like professional golf is partly luck. Auto racing is partly luck. Baseball and football and basketball and every other competition sport on earth are partly luck. Poker’s no different, the cards just make the luck factor more apparent.

Would you call me a “gambler” if my handicap was 2 and I paid $100 to enter a golf tournament?

Gambling and poker certainly overlap. Many top poker players are also gamblers. I’m not a gambler. I don’t even understand the mentality that drives gamblers.

Ted Forrest once bet $30,000 that he could drink 10 Heinekens in 30 minutes. He won and said that the next morning he felt so bad that he was sure it wasn’t worth it. He also said he that he’s won a million dollars in a day playing poker and lost a million dollars in a day playing craps. Doyle Brunson said that he’s won millions playing poker and lost millions betting on sports including a $180,000 bet he made on one hole of golf.

Those are poker players that happen to also be gamblers. They can afford to gamble because they pay for their losses with poker winnings.

I’m not a gambler. I love poker. It’s just math and psychology. Those are two things at which I happen to excel.

One of the most misunderstood and misplayed hands in poker is A-K. Almost all of the poker books tell you that A-K is the third best starting hand in Hold’em. If you bought that, you’re a sucker. Please post the address and time of your home game in the comments below.

What’s really sad is that I see people all through the WSOP and even, occasionally on the WPT, completely overplay or misplay the hand and then are completely shocked if (often when) they lose. What’s worse, some of them are so-called “pros” that I otherwise respect.

Let me say this loud so you’ll be sure to get it:

A-K is a drawing hand. It is not a made hand. It is usually a dog against any flop that doesn’t pair it. It is not even a statistical favorite against pocket deuces. Stop playing it like AA or KK and then whining when you miss!

The reason that true experts, like Doyle, will tell you that A-K is so strong is because they expect you to read the rest of their book and learn the rest of what they’re trying to teach you. Ace-King is strong, especially suited. But it’s still not a made hand. It’s strong because if you hold A-K and stay through all seven cards, another A or K will come 49% of the time. That doesn’t by any means indicate that you will win 49% of the time. It’s better than 2-1 against you getting an A or K on the flop. Then there are flushes and straights and sets and two-pair hands to consider.

Most of the time, moving in with A-K before the flop is not a good idea. It’s almost never a good idea to re-raise all-in with A-K, especially if you’re the shorter stack. Unless you are really good at reading your opponents and saw some weakness, you’re probably a dog. Let’s look at the odds:

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You have my word that I had never seen this column on ESPN.com until about 10 minutes ago.

The fact that many of the top pros they interviewed not only agree with me, but even used some of the same language and phrases to describe the change in the WSOP main event, simply shows where my destiny lies.

“You enter it, but it’s a bit of a lottery,” English pro David “Devil Fish” Ulliott said. “You don’t even expect to win. You’ve got to get so much luck to win it now. I think if I get knocked out now I won’t be that disappointed.”

I recall talking with Annie Duke and Dan Harrington at the Bellagio last October. Duke flat-out said a pro will never win the event again with these fields. Her thinking is there are so many land mines in the wild styles of the amateurs, the pros don’t stand much of a chance — plain and simple.

One more:

Lederer believes it was good for poker that the land mine known as Raymer followed the land mine known as Moneymaker followed the land mine known as Robert Varkonyi in a hat trick of amateurs copping poker’s biggest booty. It created pokerpalooza in this country with the cry “Anybody can win,” because for the last three years, “anybody” has.

I’m just saying…