Never trust an “expert”
June 19th, 2005I’ve heard it said that an expert is any schmuck addressing a topic more than a hundred miles from home. I think that’s about right.
I watched a minor poker tournament today at which the “expert” commentator was some guy I’ve never heard of but allegedly has written a number of books on the game. I’ve never heard of any of his books, either. I’ve been watching and playing poker for quite a while and I’ve read a number of poker books. If I’ve never even heard of you, it’s unlikely – not impossible, but unlikely – that you’re an expert.
He did not disappoint. Big Time Poker Book Author repeatedly calculated odds wrong, told us proles the ridiculously stupid play he would make if he were in the player’s seat and even read the board wrong. At one point, one player held a J-9 and the flop came 10-Q-4. The other player in the hand had a Queen with a bad kicker and the “expert” called the hand as ” top pair against an inside straight draw.” The first time he said it, I let it slide. Anyone can misspeak. But before the hand was over, he had called it an inside straight draw no less than 4 times, while talking about what an unplayable hand it was because an inside straight is such a long shot.
(For those that don’t know poker, it was an open-ended straight which is a very strong drawing hand. On the flop, you have up to eight cards in the deck that will complete your hand and two chances to catch one of them. The odds are twice what they are with an inside straight and even that is worth drawing to some times.)
In another hand, a player bet on the flop and he started talking as if the hand was over because “there’s no way [player X] can call here.” Player X had a double belly buster draw and a flush draw against top pair. He called and went on to win the hand. Poker Genius responded to the win with, “Huh-huh. Well, I guess you see why he’s sitting there and I’m sitting here.”
Yes. That’s one reason, moron.
I used the word “proles” earlier because this was an amateur tournament and at one point the published poker genius actually said, “You’re watching the best of proletarian poker, right here.”
About 30 minutes into this 2 hour show, I was fantasizing about getting this guy across from me at a poker table and wondering why I haven’t written a poker book yet.
Maybe I will. Then I can be an expert, too.